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The labor market is weak and weaker, says Top Economist, while Trump looks into the future Luck

 

The lack of monthly data from the Bureau of Labor statistics did not hold Wall Street in the dark, about what was happening on the labor market, because private sources indicate a deteriorating picture, according to Moody’s chief economist Marek Zandi.

The government’s shutdown prevented BLS from publishing a job on Friday September, which focused on alternative meters.

Labs Relio, which scares professional network sites, shows a profit of 60,000 jobs last month, mostly in health and education.

But in a series of contributions on X on Sunday, Zandi said that the “poor” increase is likely to be an overestimation, because the revelio data have recently been revised by signaling.

Meanwhile, the sum of the payouts of ADP in the private sector found that employers had a net 32,000 jobs last month, Zandi said it underestimates the decline because it does not include jobs that reduced the Ministry of the Government.

He also discarded most jobs in the ADP report in healthcare and large companies with more than 500 employees. “Smaller companies are hit by the most difficult tariffs and limiting immigration policies.”

Altogether, the data on Realio and ADP indicate that there was no way of growing jobs in September, Zandi said. This trend is supported by the conference council measurement, which is easy to obtain or find it hard to find, which has decreased to the lowest level since the beginning of 2021 and points to increasing non -classification.

“The point is that you do not have data on BLS tasks a serious problem for the inclusion of the health of the economy and a good political decision,” he added. “However, private data sources on tasks admirably fill in the information gap, at least for now. And this data shows that the labor market is weak and weaker.

Wall Street expected that the BLS report in September to show that 45,000 to 50,000 jobs were added, which was only 22,000 in August. This is to reduce growth overall after the previous months and even in June showed net job loss.

As reading in the labor market crosses while inflation remains sticky, sources said Wall Street Journal These advisors to President Donald Trump urged him to focus on the data for the beginning of next year, which should look clear, because the provisions in his tax and expenditure package will begin to catch.

The White House has been immensely ordered how to do it Luck but he said News That the administration “focuses on promoting reforms on the offer of the offer, providing trillion in production investments and the introduction of historical commercial agreements that will revive American industrial dominance”.

It seems that the news from Trump’s advisors has come to the President, even though he even indicated a long timeline that he expected an increase in the economy.

“Our big year will not really be next year – it will be a year after,” he told reporters recently.

Certainly, other economic indicators portray a more positive image than reading the labor market. For example, GDP growth actually increases rapidly than earlier numbers.

The growth of the second quarter was revised even higher, at 3.8% of the previous reading of 3.3%, we are robust consumer expenses. This force is likely to continue in the third quarter because the Fed Fed Fed Fed Fed increases growth to 3.8%.

Growth may not stop at this noble degree. Stephen Brown, a representative of the main economist of North America from the capital economy, said last Friday that the income and expenditure data should further alleviate the concerns that the US is at the peak of sharp slowing.

He also noted that discretional expenses that are usually reduced when consumers suffer from growth. And while the profits of expenditure have exceeded instructions over the last three months, the August savings rate was still at a relatively high 4.6%, which means that consumers are not yet widespread.

“The increase in actual consumption in August means that due to stronger dynamics to the third quarter we now have to monitor growth in the third quarter to 3.3%, from last week by 2.3%,” Brown added. “Growth of GDP in the third quarter will be up to 4%.”

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