Prediction: Bitcoin will be worth $250,000 in 5 years | Colorful fool
Bitcoin’s growth rate may be slowing, but it’s still on track to hit $250,000 by 2030.
WITH bitcoin (BTC +1.20%) decline of 7% in 2025, it’s no surprise that investors and analysts are starting to lower their price targets for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
It’s a stunning turn of events for bitcoin, which many expected to double in value this year, fueled by all the pro-crypto euphoria of the new Trump administration.
So, where will bitcoin be in five years? I predict Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by then, and here’s why.
Bitcoin’s Path to $250,000
At first glance, the $250,000 price tag may sound too aggressive. Given Bitcoin’s current price of $87,000, it projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 25% over the next five years. This type of sustained growth in any asset is unlikely to say the least.
Image source: Getty Images.
However, Bitcoin is not your typical asset. In the time period from 2017 to November 2025, Bitcoin actually grew at a CAGR of 44%. During this time period, Bitcoin was the best-performing asset in the world, routinely achieving triple-digit performances.
By 2025, Bitcoin was achieving triple digit performance. In 2023, Bitcoin rose by 157%. In 2024, the value of Bitcoin increased by another 125%. So it’s easy to see why many expected the price of Bitcoin to double again in 2025.
What Happened to Bitcoin’s $1 Million Price?
Several Wall Street investors and notables said earlier this year that the price of Bitcoin should reach $1 million by 2030. They used a base price of $100,000 and assumed that Bitcoin was destined to grow at its long-term CAGR of nearly 50%.
Today’s Change
(1.20%$1042.88
Current price
$87756.00
Key data points
Market capitalization
1.8 T
Daily range
$84581.00 -$89220.00
Range 52 weeks
$74604.47 -$126079.89
Volume
66B
Given that Bitcoin has grown at an exponential rate over the past decade, this didn’t seem like a significant stretch. Just as Bitcoin quickly rose from $1,000 to $10,000 and then from $10,000 to $100,000, it seemed only a matter of time before Bitcoin rose from $100,000 to $1 million.
But as they always say in the investment world: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This is also the case with Bitcoin. You can’t expect it to grow at a 50% annual rate forever.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle
Plus, there’s the pesky little matter of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Simply put, Bitcoin tends to follow a boom-bust cycle that lasts about four years.
This is also not a statistical deviation. Bitcoin halves every four years, and it is precisely this event that seems to start the bullish phase of the cycle. After a halving, Bitcoin tends to skyrocket in value for 12 to 18 months.
Given that the previous Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, it is understandable that Bitcoin is experiencing a moment of turbulence right now. Now more than 18 months have passed since the halving, Bitcoin may finally be entering the “down” phase of its four-year cycle.
In the past, Bitcoin has suffered massive drawdowns of 75% or more during the “down” phase of the four-year cycle. If this is the case now, then Bitcoin will have to grow at a higher CAGR to offset the losses.
Let’s say Bitcoin goes all the way down to $69,000, which was the all-time high from the previous four-year cycle. It would then have to grow at a CAGR of 30% from now on.
But that’s totally fine. This is approximately the CAGR Ethereum (ETH +3.90%) during the period 2017 to 2025. At a time when Bitcoin was growing at a CAGR of 44%, Ethereum was growing at a CAGR of 28%.
Bitcoin: $0, $250,000 or $1 Million?
From my perspective, there are three possible outcomes for Bitcoin over the next five years.
In one scenario, Bitcoin will hit $1 million, as some crypto bulls expected earlier this year. That’s a bullish scenario.
In another possible path, Bitcoin attacks the price of $250,000. That’s my new fundamental analysis – a reasonable middle ground between game-changing gains and total disaster.
Another result? It’s almost too horrible to contemplate. It’s an ultra-bearish outcome in which Bitcoin falls all the way to zero. If that happens, it will be Dutch Tulip Mania all over again. Instead of hoarding worthless tulips, are investors now hoarding worthless digital pieces?
Obviously, I’m predicting Bitcoin to reach $250,000, so I don’t have much faith in this ultra-bearish scenario. However, I also expect Bitcoin’s four-year cycle to repeat itself, just as it has for the past decade.
That’s why I focus on the long term and don’t worry about short-term price fluctuations. As long as Bitcoin continues to grow as a high-growth technology stock, it should have no problem reaching the $250,000 price level in five years.