Economists will turn to Trump’s party on the data of employment – and Jerome Powell is now in trouble

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Just two days after the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell The US Labor Market, refused to show off by September, did it for him.

Weak reports from July jobs and the largest two -month retailer 2020 down have economists and markets with the President Donald TrumpParty to call for low interest.

The US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below 110,000 expected.

But the real shock cam from Statistics of the Labor Office Revision of May and June without a payroll farm with a combined 258 000-misery of what was considered to be solid profits from work. This is a big two-month sale of The Cavid-19 Shock Revision in 2020.

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The growth of jobs in the private sector has been closely concentrated, driven mainly by health care, while government wages have fallen by 10,000. The unemployment rate increased by up to 4.2%and reversed the June decline.

However, wages remained hot. The average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-month and by 3.9% year-on-year, both defeated forecasts.

Nevertheless, the symptoms of the basic weakness in the workforce – especially because of decreasing immigration – are growing.

Meanwhile, American production continuously fights and signals ongoing heads from a tariff scholar.

PMI ISM production in July 2025 decreased to 48, from 49 in June and below the expected level of 49.5. This was marked by the fifth direct month of contraction and the lowest reading since October 2024.

The markets are now fully set in two soot by December, with the possibility of lowering 25 September on Friday to 76%, which is more than double Thursday’s chance.

Oxford Economy ‘ Nancy vanden houten She said the weak July report and historical revisions “increase the chances of lowering the Fed rates in September”. She warned that slower labor growth, especially among workers born abroad, could mask deeper structural problems.

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“The foreign labor force has decreased by 1.2 million in just six months,” she said, combining a decline with the Trump administration immigration policy.