Spain and Portugal Save Europe, Germany and Italy do it, France resists: the results of European growth in the Trump time
Back to Infographic on evaluation of European growth at the time of new US customs rights. If the continent has shocked overall, the most exposed countries have already begun to suffer.
For the time being, the EU resists. While the economies of the old continent have been undergoing Donald Trump’s price attacks (10% since April) since April, growth was resisted in the second quarter.
The euro area economy in the second quarter has unexpectedly increased, shows the first estimate of the gross domestic product (GDP) published on Wednesday by Eurostat. While analysts of Bloomberg and Factset submitted stagnation.
A correct or even unexpected character that covers a very diverse reality.
The champions are located on the Iberian Peninsula. Two countries that were viewed from Northern Europe at the beginning of 2010, which were even nicknamed the “Count of Club Med”, are now the “Savior” of Europe.
First, Spain, which recorded the strongest EU growth in quarter to 0.7%. At an analized pace, Spanish growth increased by 2.8%.
This was doped with business investments – which jumped by 2.1%, with a sharp increase in the building sector – and the consumption of households that increased by 0.8%, after climbing by 0.6%between January and March.
Then Portugal, just behind his neighbor, which with 0.6% growth also benefits from exports of goods and services and from reviving household consumption.
In this landscape, France is not so bad. Rather, the prosecutor’s peloton is 0.3% higher than expectations.
This “shows well, while customs duties have already been applied that (companies) resist this situation,” said the French Minister of Eric Lombard.
However, with entry into force on 7 August, customs obligations 15%7. August, the whole industry, such as alcohols or pharmacy, could at the end of the year.
Some savings have suffered much more in quarter. If we postpone Ireland, a separate case with GDP artificially distorted tax strategies of multinational companies (its decline of 1% follows in the first quarter jump by 7.4%), Dune is Germany and Italy.
For Germany, a decrease of 0.1% is caused by a decline in investment, especially in construction, despite the rebounding in household consumption.
Very exposed Italy and Germany
German data disintegrate with the growth recorded at the beginning of the year (+0.3% according to the revised number in the center).
According to the Capital Economics Institute, “Germany should affect harder than other main economies with customs duties and continues to suffer from problems this year before the budget recovery measures began to stimulate in 2026”.
The last weak reference in Europe in a quarter is Italy. She also saw her GDP contract by 0.1% compared to the first quarter.
The Italian National Statistical Agency ISAT noted that contractions were caused by the slowing of the added value of agriculture, forestry and fishing and industry, while the service sector remained generally stable.
In particular, pure exports weighed negatively in total production. Italy is one of the European countries that most export to the United States (67.3 billion euros in 2023), which recorded a very large trade surplus of more than 25 billion.
Drinks (39%), motor vehicles (30.7%) and pharmaceutical products (30.7%) are very dependent on the US market. The end of the year can be very difficult for “Made in Italia” at Trump.
